Saturday, January 04, 2014

Predictions for 2014

I'm not a pundit, and I haven't run any numbers on these things. These predictions are simply based on pessimism or optimism. So I guess that makes me a pundit. These are not very bold predictions, either. I just want to write these down and see what happens later.

  1. Rep. Steve King (R-IA) will win again. D will gain maybe 5-ish in the House, R will gain maybe 3 in the Senate, but both majorities will remain intact.
  2. The Cubs will win 70 or fewer games.
  3. There will be at least one more Rand Paul or Ted Cruz filibuster.
  4. At least two more states will have court rulings in favor of homosexual marriage. NOTE: this is written after Utah. EDIT: I predict that Utah's rulings will stand and there will be no 'stay' before the final ruling, either.
  5. The rest of Sherlock will be awesome.
  6. Bitcoin will "stabilize" by the end of the year in that week-over-week fluctuations in value will be less than, say, 10% for a few weeks in a row. This is still an absurd level of volatility for a "currency". Also, the IRS will announce treating it as a foreign currency for tax purposes, which would make things a lot easier to deal with in some ways. Bitcoin will still be a rather impractical idea, much like a lot of other techno-libertarian nonsense.
Things I hope happen:
  1. Somehow Steve King loses or doesn't run. Any Republican in the state could replace him and I'd be fine with their election if he somehow does not run.
  2. More states take up the Medicaid expansion.
  3. Extension of unemployment benefits.
  4. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz get their comeuppance. Perhaps some GOP guy says something against the libertarian wing of the party and it sticks.
  5. Either party starts to take action on global warming seriously. Hopefully both do. We have a party of stupid and a party of inaction at the moment.
  6. The Cubs win 75 games. HA.


EDIT: more predictions.

David Brooks will continue to earn my ire as the worst of all possible editorialists. At least ideological hacks are ideological hacks - they're understandable. I'd rather read Steve King (R-IA) editorializing - I would understand my enemy. But, Brooks: nothing of the sort. There are "useful idiots" in politics, but he is merely a "useless idiot". If I wanted to understand his opinion, I would just put on my University of Chicago sweatshirt and think my most WASPy, status-quo-loving thoughts ("I'm a big four-eyed lame-o, and I wear the same stupid sweater every day and --"). Aha! Marijuana should be illegal because only losers smoke it. Who wants to be a loser?

Okay, I'm not exactly stepping out on a limb there, I'm just editorializing about how David Brooks pisses me off.

Actual prediction: the individual mandate ends up doing a lot of good where allowed to actually work. GOP bitches about it all year.

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